Weekly Blog – 7 November 2022 – Ukraine
Ukraine
Eight months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this brutal war continues to drag on with no end in sight. The UN estimates that at least 6,400 civilians have been killed and over 9,800 injured, probably many more. Some 7.8 million Ukrainians have fled as refugees across Europe, and another 6.5 million are internally displaced within the country.[1] Amongst the combatants, estimates suggest around 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and anywhere up to 80,000 Russian soldiers,[2] though all numbers are of course hard to verify. Around 15% of the country has been occupied.
The war has been marked by atrocities. Deliberate rocket attacks on civilian areas, artillery used to flatten whole city districts, and the murder of civilians in Russian occupied areas have all featured. The impacts of the war have been felt around the world, with energy prices surging, and drastic food shortages in many developing countries, dependent on Ukraine’s hugely disrupted grain exports. The war has also revealed the weakness of the Russian army. Appalling logistics, bad planning, outdated equipment and low morale have all meant a war that at first seemed like it would be over in days has dragged into a lengthy brutal struggle.
How did we get here?
The years following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War in 1991 (when former Soviet republics like Ukraine became independent), were grim ones for Russia. The dreams of greater openness, freedom and prosperity, ran into hard reality as the Russian economy transitioned from being protected and controlled to virtually lawless gangster capitalism almost overnight. This saw the emergence of the fabulously wealthy Russian oligarchs, and hard times for the vast majority of the Russian population. The tough economic context and Russia’s declining power in the world created the environment which led to Vladimir Putin’s rise to power, with his increasing anti-western antagonism, and desire to re-establish Russia’s influence and a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union.
In 2014 the pro-Russian Ukrainian President Yanukovych decided to move away from closer links to the European Union and instead develop closer ties to Russia. This deeply unpopular move led to mass protests, which eventually saw President Yanukovych flee the country, to be replaced by a more popular western leaning government. In retaliation Russia invaded and occupied Crimea, and began stirring up and supporting separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk. Earlier this year the conflict escalated to a whole new level when Russia launched a full scale invasion of the rest of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
Where do we go from here?
So, as Christians, what are we to make of this tragic situation? And how should the world move forward from here? Arise’s report, The Arise Manifesto, looks in detail at what the Bible has to say, and what history and the world’s leading academic experts have to teach us, about peaceful international relations and reducing and ending conflict.
Firstly, a lot could have been done differently to avoid the world ending up in this situation in the first place. A more managed, phased opening up of the Russian economy in the 1990s (similar to the way China, India and many other Asian countries have gradually opened their economies, on their terms) would have prevented the economic deprivation Russia has experienced ever since. More gracious and respectful behaviour from the west in the years after the end of the Cold War, rather than much triumphalist arrogance and high handedness, could have prevented Russian loss of face, resentment, and antagonism. More recently, whilst it would have been morally impossible to accommodate the Russian government’s demands for a sphere of interest in which it could threaten, bully and control peaceful, independent, neighbouring nations, a lot more could have been done to listen to and find ways to help address genuine Russian concerns about security threats near its borders, and to de-escalate rising tensions. Nevertheless, the unilateral unprovoked invasion and attempt to conquer and occupy a peaceful neighbouring country can never be right, no matter what the perceived affronts, and must be condemned and opposed.
Looking forward, history teaches us that the vast majority of deaths and suffering caused in conflicts, do not result from the many small wars that plague the world, as tragic as these are, but from the occasional large wars that involve multiple nations. Therefore, the response of the international community to the invasion of Ukraine appears to have been about right. This has been to avoid becoming directly engaged militarily themselves, and thus escalating the conflict all the way up to potentially nuclear levels, and to instead express condemnation and work together to support Ukraine and apply tough diplomatic and economic sanctions to contain the threat and force the withdrawal over a longer timeframe. Such a response is likely to cause less suffering in the long-term. Ultimately, there can be no peace through military means, and Russia and Ukraine must find some sort of negotiated peace in order to live together, without compromising democratic freedoms. Therefore, every effort should be made to keep talking to the Russian government, no matter how brutally they wage war, in order to find this solution.
Longer-term the world desperately needs to see Russia transition away from the brutal dictatorship it has undoubtedly become, and back into a peaceful democratic nation, with a rich, noble and proud tradition, resuming its full place as part of the international community. History has shown us over and over again that it is both wrong and impossible to impose democracy from outside. Neither is an armed revolution desirable. Such an approach causes much suffering, and often replaces one brutal regime with another, which quickly adopts the same repressive approach. Instead it is a peaceful bottom-up civil society reform movement of ordinary Russians demanding change, of the kind that Arise supports around the world, which provides the most likely route to success. This is the only route that has ever truly and sustainably worked for growing democracy, freedom and human rights around the world. Of course in Russia’s current intolerant domestic environment, such a movement requires enormous courage, wisdom, skill and perseverance from its members. However, the actions of the current Russian regime are far from universally supported, and do not represent the true heart of the Russian people. In particular Christians and churches should play a key role at the core of such a movement, as they have in so many movements against other regimes in countries all over the world. Internationally we should all do all we can to support them. The potential success of such a movement is the great hope for Russia, Ukraine and the whole world.
Find out more
Find out more in the Arise Manifesto, Arise’s big picture, researched, Biblical, holistic and practical vision for a better world. It looks at what the Bible says, and what we can learn from the best data and the world’s leading experts on the five major areas of evangelism, discipleship, social justice, development and the environment. It then draws these lessons together into a practical road map for the changes we need to see in our world, which the Arise movement campaigns to achieve.
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[1] Ukraine Data Explorer, UN OCHA, (2 Sep 2022), https://data.humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/
[2] Some 9,000 Ukrainian troops killed during Russian invasion: Kyiv, Aljazeera, (22 Aug 2022), www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/22/nearly-9000-ukrainian-troops-killed-since-february-kyiv-says