Weekly Blog - 17 April 2023 - Sudan
Fighting in Sudan
Widespread fighting broke out in Sudan’s capital Khartoum on Saturday 15 April between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF), which has suddenly split from the ruling alliance. Over 300 people have been killed so far, and more than 1,800 injured, including many civilians caught in the crossfire. Many ordinary people in Khartoum are trapped in their homes unable to venture out to work, buy food, or get medical help. CNN reported the case of just one woman Amal who cannot leave her home because of the fighting. “The situation today is worse than yesterday. We can hear heavy artillery and smell and see the smoke rising from burning buildings,” she said.[1]
How did we get here?
Sudan has a long, tragic and complicated history of violence. The country achieved independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956. Even before independence had technically begun, the country was plunged into a brutal civil war between the mainly Arab Muslim North and the mainly African Christian and Animist South. Fighting waged from 1955 – 1972 and again from 1983 – 2005, until an agreement for independence was reached. South Sudan became an independent nation in 2011. Towards the end of this war in the south, another conflict broke out in the west of the country, in Darfur in 2003. It has rumbled on ever since. Again fighting has been between the non-Arab local population and the mainly Arab government, supported by brutal local Arab militias, the Janjaweed. Numerous other smaller conflicts have occurred in other parts of the country since independence as well.
In Khartoum, Sudan’s political history has been no less turbulent. There have been multiple attempted military coups over the decades, and several tragically successful ones. The first of these in 1969 brought Colonel Gaafar Nimeiry to power. He was ousted in 1985 as a result of a popular democratic uprising. However, in 1989 the military again took control in another coup which put Colonel Omar al-Bashir in power as President. He ruled for more than three decades until he in turn was ousted in 2019 by another mass popular democratic uprising. A joint civilian/military government led by the Sovereign Council of Sudan was established, with a view to charting a course to a full democratic civilian government. However, this was disrupted by yet another military coup in 2021. This put General Abdel Fattah al Burhan in power at the head of the Sovereign Council, with General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, leader of the RSF paramilitary force (which grew out of the Janjaweed fighters in Darfur) as his deputy. There have been continuing popular democratic demonstrations since then which have put pressure on the regime. Now, talks in December 2022 to resume transition of Sudan back to full civilian democratic control have triggered further divisions between Abdel Fattah al Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, over the transition, and the speed of the merger of the RSF into the regular Sudanese army. This week that split has broken down fully into open warfare between the two sides on the streets of Khartoum.
What are the lessons?
So, what can we learn when we reflect on Sudan’s tragically violent recent history? Firstly, as Christians, we are reminded that God abhors all conflict and wants an end to all war. As the Psalms tell us, “He makes wars cease to the ends of the earth. He breaks the bow and shatters the spear; he burns the shields with fire.” (Psalm 46: 9) Furthermore, we are also reminded that our God is a God of justice that sees no place for military coups and wants to see every government in the world ruling with fairness, equality, justice for all and good human rights. As Jeremiah the prophet says, “Hear the word of the LORD to you, king of Judah, you who sits on David’s throne – you, your officials and your people who come through these gates. This is what the LORD says: Do what is just and right. Rescue from the hand of the oppressor the one who has been robbed. Do no wrong or violence to the foreigner, the fatherless or the widow, and do not shed innocent blood in this place.” (Jer 2: 2 – 3) As Christians and the global church it is part of our calling to put pressure on every nation, including Sudan, to be peaceful and democratic, and to fully uphold human rights and basic freedoms.
In seeking to apply this, there are further key lessons from Sudan’s history. It is extremely notable that where decades of rebellion, warfare, violence and military coups have failed, mere months of mass, peaceful popular democratic protest have repeatedly been successful in advancing democracy and bringing down autocratic governments. This very much mirrors findings in a major report from Arise, The Arise Manifesto, a significant part of which looks at what the Bible teaches and history has demonstrated to be the most successful ways of advancing democracy, human rights and good governance. For example, in one of the most authoritative studies in this field, Why Civil Resistance Works, Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan, after “analysing 323 violent and nonviolent resistance campaigns between 1900 and 2006” found that “nonviolent resistance campaigns were nearly twice as likely to achieve full or partial success as their violent counterparts.”[2] (Arise Manifesto, pg 86 – 88, 100, 108 – 109)
In recent decades peaceful reform movements have had dramatic success in Serbia, Madagascar, Georgia, Ukraine, Lebanon, Nepal, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, East Germany, Slovenia, Mali, Bolivia, the Philippines, Zambia, South Korea, Chile, Argentina, Haiti, Brazil, Uruguay, Malawi, Thailand, Bulgaria, Hungary, Nigeria, and many other countries. Of course, such movements require great courage and perseverance from those involved. They are not guaranteed to succeed every time. But overwhelmingly the power of ordinary people peacefully refusing to submit is remarkable, and has continually proved the most successful way to improve democracy, human rights and good governance in nations around the world. Throughout history, Christians and churches have played a hugely important central role in such reform movements (Arise Manifesto, pg 283 – 303). They have worked well alongside journalists, academics, activists, students, trade unions and others in such movements. Supporting such bottom-up Reform Movements (and the Christians that are so often at the heart of them) is one of three key focus campaigns for Arise.
Less encouragingly, another key lesson from Sudan’s political history is that there is a particular danger for such reform movements at the moment of victory. When popular democratic pressure has built and an autocratic government is ousted or forced to change, other players, such as the military, can step into the immediate power vacuum. The transition to a democratic government is far from guaranteed. Again this is a key finding in the Arise Manifesto. From looking at many such reform movements around the world, some crucial lessons that can help to prevent this include ensuring that the reform movement has a clear practical strategy for turning its demands into reality, and has a clear leadership structure for decision-making. Such movements should also maintain internal systems of discipline to prevent losing control of the movement to violent elements, and pre-plan and be ready when sudden breakthrough comes, after pressure has built. Reformers should also not assume victory once a dictator has gone, but keep going until full democracy, human rights and good governance have been installed (Arise Manifesto, pg 111 – 112, 116 – 117). Sudan’s recent history also shows that as well as domestic reformers, there is also a key role for the international community to play to keep external pressure up on the regime. Where peace deals have been struck, and autocratic regimes removed in Sudan, pressure and support from the international community has always been a key factor (Arise Manifesto, pg 119 – 124).
So where do we go from here?
So, having observed these lessons, what should be the way forward for Sudan from here? Firstly and immediately, there must be an urgent ceasefire and talks between the Sudanese government and the RSF. The fighting must end quickly, and not be allowed to slide back into longer-term conflict. There is much learning on the actions and policies that the international community has used successfully to apply pressure in dozens of other similar situations around the world in recent decades, to bring warring factions together (Arise Manifesto, pg 119 – 124). There is also much learning on how a successful negotiation and agreement can be reached between factions once talks have begun (Arise Manifesto, pg 129 – 136). Alongside this external pressure, we need renewed domestic pressure from brave protestors and reforms in Sudan, who have already done so much to call for change in their country. Again there is much that can be learnt from the tactics similar such reform movements have used successfully in dozens of countries all around the world in recent decades (Arise Manifesto, pg 108 – 119). The world desperately needs to do all it can to get behind and support such courageous national reform movements.
Finally, should a return to peace and democracy be achieved in Sudan, the new civilian regime will be hugely vulnerable in this poverty stricken and unstable country. The world must do all it can to help ensure that government achieves some rapid confidence building results, otherwise the region could all too easily slide back into conflict again. This is crucial, especially in two areas which people living in conflict regions desire above all else. The first is to protect them from the daily terror of lawlessness and brutal armed factions by demonstrating that the new national authority is providing security, justice and the rule of law. The second is to create jobs and economic development, through focusing on policies to ensure the growth of a strong and fair economy. This is crucial in countries like Sudan, where young men with few prospects and a history of violence can otherwise all too easily turn back to war. To prevent this, means following the kinds of policies outlined in another major report by Arise, 4 Shifts, which looks at what is needed to create, strong, fair and green economies in even the poorest countries in the world (4 Shifts, pg 56 – 60, 70 – 86).
Despite the horrific violence of the last week, the last few turbulent years since Bashir was ousted in 2019 have seen Sudan come closer to a proper civilian democratic government than it has in decades. Now is not the time for the international community, the church and the world to step back. That would all too easily result in a return to entrenched conflict and brutal dictatorship. Instead it is a crucial turning point where every possible pressure should be applied and this window of opportunity seized in order to continue the transition to the longed for day of full democratic civilian rule in Sudan.
Find out more
Find out more about how God is at work in the world, and the role we all have to play in that work, in the Arise Manifesto. This report is Arise’s big picture, researched, Biblical, holistic and practical vision for a better world. It looks at what the Bible says, and what we can learn from the best data and the world’s leading experts on the five major areas of evangelism, discipleship, social justice, development and the environment. It then draws these lessons together into a practical road map for the changes we need to see in our world, which the Arise movement campaigns to achieve.
Found this blog online, or sent it by a friend? Sign up to receive weekly blogs from Arise directly.
[1] Clashes re-erupt in Sudan, hours after truce went into effect, CNN, (19 Apr 2023), https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/19/africa/sudan-fighting-hospitals-evacuation-wednesday-intl-hnk/index.html
[2] Chenoweth, E. & Stephan, M. J., Why Civil Resistance Works, (New York: Columbia University Press, 2013), pp. 6 – 7