Weekly Blog - 19 February 2025 - European Security
How can the world best ensure peace in Ukraine and security in Europe in the light of recent dramatic shifts in US foreign policy and talks with Russia?
US policy shifts on Ukraine and European security
This week our weekly blog focuses on the seismic shifts that are taking place in European security policy as a result of the approach taken by the new US administration. These are difficult issues to wrestle with, with no easy answers. But as Christians we can’t shy away from the difficult issues our world faces. We have to face into them, pray, listen to God, and see what our faith and the teachings of the Bible have to offer to help the world navigate through difficult times towards a better, more peaceful and stable future.
Last Friday US Vice President J D Vance shocked Ukraine and the nations of Europe when he spoke at the Munich Security Conference, skipping over the conflict in Ukraine and instead choosing to focus criticism on European nations themselves. It is becoming increasingly clear that after eight decades of the US being the ultimate guarantor of European security, it may be that America is no longer prepared to do that. It also became clear that the US was pressing ahead with negotiations with Russia directly, without including Europe or Ukraine, and seemingly prepared to offer Russia huge concessions, asking for very little in return. European countries held an emergency summit on Monday 19 February to consider what they would do. Meanwhile US and Russian talks began in Saudi Arabia the following day. The US has insisted these are just early preliminaries and that ultimately Ukraine and Europe must be involved before any final agreement. Nevertheless, European nations are shocked and waking up to the fact that the US is potentially no longer the reliable security partner it always has been.
What does the Bible say?
So what does the Bible have to say that is relevant for this tense and very difficult situation. First and foremost, the Bible is incredibly clear that God wants to see an end to all wars everywhere, as the prophet Micah says, “He will judge between many peoples and will settle disputes for strong nations far and wide. They will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation will not take up sword against nation, nor will they train for war anymore” (Micah 4: 3). In particular the Bible sees no possible justification for aggressive wars of expansion. We see in multiple instances unprovoked invasions condemned, such as by the prophet Jeremiah, “Concerning the Ammonites: This is what the LORD says: ‘Has Israel no sons? Has Israel no heir? Why then has Molek taken possession of Gad? Why do his people live in its towns?’” (Jer 49: 1). Similarly, the prophet Ezekiel declared “This is what the Sovereign LORD says: Because they ravaged and crushed you from every side so that you became the possession of the rest of the nations and the object of people’s malicious talk and slander … In my burning zeal I have spoken against the rest of the nations, and against all Edom, for with glee and with malice in their hearts they made my land their own possession so that they might plunder its pastureland” (Eze 36: 3 – 5). We also read in the Bible how God wants all governments, everywhere, to rule well, with justice, fairness, impartiality and integrity. As it says in the Book of Proverbs, “By justice a king gives a country stability” (Prov 29: 4). And we see how Israel’s great king David was praised for doing this, for “David reigned over all Israel, doing what was just and right for all his people” (2 Sam 8: 15).
So as Christians we clearly want to see the war in Ukraine (and indeed all wars everywhere) ended as swiftly as possible in a permanent and lasting peace. But we also want to ensure there is a major element of justice in the final outcome, and that all the people of Ukraine will find themselves living under a regime which demonstrates justice, fairness, impartiality and integrity. A major piece of research from Arise, the Arise Manifesto, contains many lessons drawn from the Bible and from recent history on how Ukraine and the European nations might achieve this.
How can we ensure a fair peace in Ukraine and security for the rest of Europe?
Based on the recent history of repeated provocative actions, broken promises and the actual invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, Ukraine and other European nations have to assume a continued pattern of aggression from Russia. On the other side the dramatic shifts in US policy since President Trump came to power make it very clear that Ukraine and other European nations have to assume that the US can no longer be completely relied upon to protect Europe, or even to remain firmly in NATO. So Ukraine and other European states need to both do all they can to talk and negotiate peace with Russia, without being naïve about how sincere that commitment might be, and also do all they can to keep the US involved, whilst also having a clear plan in place if the US does withdraw its security guarantee.
This must mean much greater investment of European nations into their own hugely diminished conventional armed forces. The Bible teaches that in fulfilling their duty to administer justice, national authorities are permitted to use limited force where necessary to protect innocent citizens and enforce the law (detain criminals etc.) (Arise Manifesto, pg 81 – 82). As part of this same principle it also appears to teach that as well as protecting their citizens from internal violence by their fellow citizens, states can also legitimately use force to protect their citizens from the violence of foreign invasion (Arise Manifesto, pg 89). The state is the only institution in the Bible that is permitted to use force in any way (certainly the church and us as individual Christians should never use it), and even here that force should be significantly limited. In all circumstances it must be the minimal amount of force necessary and with multiple safeguards. So given this context, where limited state use of force can be justified, there is an argument that at times it may be legitimate and necessary for states to increase their military spending. Not in order to create more conflict, but precisely the opposite, in order to deter and prevent it.
Such forces deter aggression from other nations, stand ready to protect their citizens if necessary, can participate in UN peacekeeping operations, are able to intervene if needed in contexts of extreme oppression and genocide, and can also be deployed to help with humanitarian needs and emergencies both at home and around the world. All the evidence from history would indicate that the existence of such forces and the clear determination to use them if necessary acts not as a spur to war but as a deterrent to potential aggressors and to help preserve the peace (Arise Manifesto, pg 126). Therefore the nations of Europe must build up and maintain well-funded, large and professional armies. Ukraine and Europe’s ability to negotiate and make stick a lasting peace with Russia will be strengthened massively by such an approach, especially given the very real fears that without such an implied threat Russia will simply renege on any agreement and restart hostilities at a future time of its choosing. It will also massively incentivise the US to stay involved.
From this stronger negotiating position Ukraine and Europe should absolutely reach out and be involved in peace negotiations, and will have the potential deterrent in place that might enable the eventual peace agreement to stick. In the end Ukraine and Europe will have to be involved. You can’t end a conflict by only talking to one side. Ultimately all conflicts must end with negotiation, which inevitably involves painful compromise. And it is good that talks have begun. Another key lesson from history is that the governments of the world should pursue regular and cordial diplomatic communication, relations, dialogue and meetings (including at the highest levels), especially between powerful nations. No matter how difficult situations may become, it is critical that nations keep talking. It is often when tensions are at their highest that regular, direct and clear communication between both sides is most important. This is widely recognised by academics, diplomats, politicians and foreign policy experts (Arise Manifesto, pg 124). However, moving from this early start to a final position, with an acceptable compromise agreed by all sides that protects the rights of ordinary Ukrainians, will be a long and difficult journey. There are lots of lessons in the Arise Manifesto to help with this, drawn from the teachings of the Bible and the evidence from history on what works best to make such negotiations successful (Arise Manifesto, pg 124 – 136).
Beyond that, the world is under no illusions about the nature of the regime currently in power in Russia. For greater peace and freedom across Europe we all need to see Russia transition away from the brutal dictatorship it has undoubtedly become, and back into a peaceful democratic nation, with a rich, noble and proud tradition, resuming its full place as part of the international community. It is a peaceful bottom-up civil society reform movement of ordinary Russians demanding change, of the kind that Arise supports around the world, which provides the most likely route to achieve that. This is the only route that has ever truly and sustainably worked for growing democracy, freedom and human rights around the world (Arise Manifesto, pg 86 – 88, 108 – 119). Of course in Russia’s current intolerant domestic environment, such a movement requires enormous courage, wisdom, sacrifice, skill and perseverance from its members. However, the actions of the current Russian regime are far from universally supported, and do not represent the true heart of the Russian people. In particular Christians and churches should play a key role at the core of such a movement, as they have in so many Reform Movements against other regimes in countries all over the world. Internationally we should all do all we can to support them. The potential success of such a movement is the great hope for Russia, Ukraine and the whole world.
And none of this should stop with just Europe, Ukraine or Russia. The world currently has more active conflicts than at any time since the Second World War. All of them are just as tragic to the communities involved, and they all deserve our attention and focus, not just conflicts in Europe. In addition, democracy and human rights have been declining around the world for almost two decades. European nations, and indeed all nations that believe in peace, democracy, human rights, freedom and the rule of law, must work together to put pressure on the warring sides in all conflicts around the world to come to the negotiating table and find a way back to peace. They should also support grassroots reform movements of ordinary people around the world who are working for democracy, human rights and freedom in their nations. As Christians we can all play our part to lobby nations to go down this path in Europe and around the world. Let us step into this challenge. Let us Arise.
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