Weekly Blog - 8 January 2024 - 2023 The Hottest Year
2023 the hottest year
Once again last year broke all climate records, making 2023 the hottest year since records began, following straight on from the previous hottest year ever in 2022.[1] This means that globally the last 9 years have now all been the hottest years on record.[2] On average the world in 2023 was 1.48 degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels, taking it dangerously close to the 1.5 degree level which scientists say we must stay below to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. The warming was felt not just in one region but right across the world. Furthermore, 2023 did not just exceed previous records by a small margin, but by a significant amount. Since July almost every day has been the hottest day on record for the time of year. More than 200 days last year saw a record broken for global temperature. At sea it was even worse, with world sea surface temperatures broken every day since 4 May last year, and Antarctic sea ice at its lowest ever level. These extreme temperature rises of recent years are a direct result of human induced climate change, primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
The human impacts of this dangerous level of climate change have been felt across the world in the last year, with a huge and tragic food crisis in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, a massive heatwave across much of Europe, the US and the northern hemisphere, and devastating floods in Pakistan, New Zealand, the UK, and Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is developing countries like Zimbabwe, DR Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Pakistan, whose greenhouse gas emissions are a fraction of those of more developed nations, that have done the least to cause climate change, but are being hit the hardest by it. This is impacting the lives of millions of ordinary people like Aagney from Nepal, who has seen the weather change from when he was a boy, so it is now much hotter in his region, even in winter. He has seen the rains repeatedly fail in recent years devastating the winter barley crop and leaving smog and haze in the air.
As Christians what should we do about it?
As Christians we know we are called both to care for God’s amazing creation, and to love our neighbours, especially the most vulnerable. We read in Genesis how humanity was instructed both to work God’s creation and to “take care of it” (Gen 2: 15). Later the book of Proverbs tells us “The righteous care about justice for the poor” (Prov 29: 7). We therefore need to meet immediate urgent needs for those whose lives have already been devastated by climate change. And we also need to tackle the long-term underlying causes, and urgently get out of fossil fuels which are driving global climate change, and instead shift to 100% clean renewable energy, which does not lead to climate change, and is cheaper as well. So how can the governments of the world go about meeting this challenge?
Four Shifts
A major piece of research from Arise, the 4 Shifts Report, looks at what the Bible teaches us and the lessons from history about how we can rewire our global economy to be green and fair, so it still creates the jobs and wealth that lift people out of poverty, but does so without relying on fossil fuels and overconsumption which is wrecking our planet. Four Shifts economics captures the two great shifts that the world needs to secure a safe environmental ceiling that keeps us well within planetary boundaries: from polluting fossil fuels to renewable clean energy, and from overconsumption and waste to a circular economy that eliminates all waste and re-uses resources. It then holds them together with the two great shifts on development that are necessary for guaranteeing the social floor, which lifts all out of poverty and below which no one should be allowed to fall: strong and fair economies from which nations can tax and provide social spending to meet basic needs.
Tackling global climate change will mean implementing the first of these four great shifts, from polluting fossil fuels to clean energy. Every nation should rapidly scale down the use of fossil fuels to absolute zero emissions and scale up clean renewable energy to 100% by 2030, banning all fossil fuels from this date. Arise believe this would need to be implemented in every sector: energy, transport, buildings, industry etc. It will need to be rolled out through multiple policies, such as an immediate ban on coal-fired power plants and all other new fossil fuel production, and using quotas and targets to rapidly scale down oil and gas use. It would further mean massively supporting solar, wind, hydropower, tidal, wave and ocean current driven energy as the clean renewable energy alternatives that are also far cheaper and quicker to scale up. Governments should ensure renewable energy is generated in a local decentralised manner, so energy is immediately and locally available. They should also update all energy grids to become ‘smart grids’, so they use modern digital technology and real time information to predict and detect energy demands, and direct energy flows to the most needed areas when they are required, minimising wastage and maximising efficiency.
In other areas, governments should immediately ban the construction of new cars, trucks, lorries and trains which use fossil fuels, since electric alternatives are already available. They should also rapidly phase out the remaining fossil fuel cars, trucks, trains and lorries, whilst providing a heavily subsidised package to support any of the public still using petrol vehicles to upgrade to electric alternatives. Additional investment should be made in national infrastructure to support these alternatives, such as the widespread availability of charge points for cars and wires and rails for electric trains. National programmes to completely convert existing building stock to use clean energy generated electricity for heating/hot water/cooking should be launched. Across all sectors the maximum possible energy efficiency and emissions standards should be applied to minimise waste, leakage and the amount of power used (4 Shifts Report, pg 102 – 112).
Achieving such a shift requires significant investment, both public and private. This has the potential for huge economic (as well as environmental) gains in terms of the creation of large numbers of green jobs. There needs to be a modern constructive partnership between governments and the private sector that sees important roles for public spending, legislation, and economic and industrial strategy, alongside private sector investment, innovation and scale, working in partnership to deliver the transformation required. The 4 Shifts Report calls for every government to significantly invest public funds into research and development to improve and scale up clean energy technology, and tax breaks, subsidies, public procurement and a positive partnership between governments and the private sector to boost clean energy production. Other policies should include cutting all fossil fuel subsidies and massively increasing taxes on greenhouse gas emitting forms of energy use. These would all create even larger numbers of well paid, skilled green jobs and boost national economies (4 Shifts Report, pg 102 – 112).
It is possible
Shifting to 100% clean renewable energy by 2030, and banning all fossil fuels from this date sounds radical, but it is what the science says is desperately and rapidly needed if we are to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Any delay only makes the cost in both human suffering and cash far greater. There is nothing to lose and everything to gain by acting rapidly now. The UK, and indeed every national economy, needs to be put on a war footing, to take radical and fast measures at scale in order to address the climate crisis with the level of urgency, speed and seriousness that is needed. This is totally possible. We have an excellent example from our very recent history. In 2020 in response to the Covid 19 pandemic, huge public and private funds were invested in vaccine development, enabling vaccines that would usually have taken years or even decades to develop, to be produced in a matter of months, and mass vaccination of the entire population to be rolled out. In addition rapid and radical policies like nation-wide lockdowns and mass testing were introduced. A huge furlough scheme protected jobs, businesses and the national economy. The army was called on for key roles. Whole new hospitals were built within weeks. Core workers were prioritised, protected and supported. And in the midst of all this, the nation came together in solidarity behind the government to respond to a national emergency. That is the kind of ambition and rapid action that we need in the UK and every nation.
Conclusion
The fact that last year has once again proved to be the hottest year on record, for the ninth time in a row, should be a massive wake up call for the world. We must rapidly scale up urgent climate action now to avoid the worst impacts of runway climate change. It is entirely doable. The world cannot afford to wait any longer.
Find out more
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Find out more about why the world needs 4 Shifts to transition to a fair and green global economy in Arise’s 4 Shifts Report, and how this forms part of God’s bigger vision for our world in the Arise Manifesto.
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[1] 2023 confirmed as world’s hottest year on record, BBC, (10 Jan 2024), https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67861954
[2] Eight warmest years on record witness upsurge in climate change impacts, World Meteorological Organization, (6 Nov 2022), https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/eight-warmest-years-record-witness-upsurge-climate-change-impacts